Will Gasim be the new Speaker?

Billionaire politician Gasim Ibrahim is likely to be the next Speaker of the People's Majlis which has just been elected under the new Constitution. The Majlis election held on 9 May has elected 77 members for the new Majlis. There are many new faces including four young women in the new Majlis. 64 members were elected from various political parties while former President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom's DRP won 28 seats with its alliance partner Gayoom's brother Yamin's PA winning 7 seats. Ruling MDP got 26 seats and no party has received a clear majority. Though more than 18 candidates contested from Gasim's Jumhoory Party, only Gasim won his own island Maamigil region seat. The candidates who won the election were largely on party basis mainly from DRP and DRP while smaller parties and independents did not do well in the election. This poses a serious question about the future and relevance of smaller parties in the rapidly transforming politics of Maldives. Now that the new Majlis is elected and the Elections Commission has announced official results of the election, the next important task would be swearing in the new Majlis and election of the new Speaker and Deputy Speaker. With the separation of powers and Majlis being given wider powers and responsibilities, the hot talk every where is who will be the next Speaker. There are names of few very eligible persons like former Foreign Minister Abdullah Shahid, former Information Minister and leading lawyer Mohamed Nasheed, former minister and leader of PA Abdulla Yamin, former Minister and Deputy Leader of DRP Ahmed Thasmeen Ali, MDP's long serving MP Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, MDP's Chairperson Mariya Ahmed Didi, and former Minister and Speaker of Peopl's Special Majlis businessman Gasim Ibrahim. There are speculations DRP is trying to elect Abdullah Shahid as the new Speaker and Nasheed as Deputy while Gasim Ibrahim is also vying for the big post. On the MDP side, there are indications they will try to give the post to veteran MDP MP Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, Ibu. Some political experts believe Gasim Ibrahim will be one of the formidable candidates, while many others feel the next Speaker will be one who is favored by the party which has the largest number of MPs on their side. So it is most likely the new Speaker will be one who is chosen by DRP, hence Abdullah Shahid may very likely be the new Speaker if DRP doses not want Gasim to get the post. However many feel Mohamed Nasheed is the best and most neutral person for the important post. But Nasheed has indicated he is keener to represent and speak for his constituency Kulhuduffushi South in the coming Majlis. At the same time there are many who also think Nasheed can give a huge contribution in the debates and business of the Majlis. There are some who think Yamin will be a good Speaker given his wide knowledge and experience. Mariya is another favorite person to take the new post especially when the country has to show in action it is truly committed to empowering women, and Mariya has proven her worth as an outstanding leader. Whatever it is, more people think Gasim has a better chance considering his ability in compiling the new Constitution under his leadership as Speaker of the Special Majlis. There are also many who support Gasim for his generosities. But what is difficult to forecast is how much of support he will get from DRP members and MDP members in the secret vote which will be taken in the first meeting of the new Majlis. Of late Gasim has been very critical of President Nasheed and MDP and he has distanced himself and his party from the MDP coalition though he has not officially withdrawn from the coalition. Gasim has also moved closer to DRP which has supported his candidature in the recent election,. Some think Gasim could not have won his Maamigili seat without DRP support. There are indications Gasim has been supporting DRP during the recent months especially in the election which gave DRP a lead over MDP. If DRP and some of the independent members support Gasim, there is no doubt that Gasim will be the next Speaker. If Gasim becomes next Speaker in the new democratic system, he will be fulfilling one of his life long ambitions though he has not been able to win the highest post of the country, the most prestigious and powerful post of President.